Dutch Elections: Key Players and Main Issues in Snap Vote
Citizens in the Netherlands are preparing to possibly exchange the most conservative administration in modern history with a more moderate and pragmatic alliance during snap parliamentary elections scheduled for 29 October.
The Situation and Its Significance
Early legislative elections were called after the breakdown of the previous administration in the summer, when rightwing figure Geert Wilders withdrew his party from an increasingly fractious and largely ineffective ruling coalition.
Wilders' party had achieved a surprising first place in the previous general election, and after prolonged talks formed a unstable multi-party conservative alliance with the BBB party, centrist New Social Contract and center-right VVD.
However, Wilders' government allies considered him too toxic for the premier position, which ultimately went to a ex-security head. Wilders, an immigration-skeptic polemicist who has required security detail for two decades, began sniping from outside government.
Wilders finally caused the government collapse on June 3 after his partners refused to implement a radical 10-point anti-immigration plan that included deploying the army to patrol borders, turning back all asylum seekers, shutting down refugee hostels and repatriating all Syrian refugees.
Although backing of the PVV has decreased, polls indicate the rightwing, Islam-critical party is again likely to secure the largest representation in parliament. But, main Dutch political formations have collectively rejected forming a government with Wilders.
No fewer than sixteen political groups are predicted to enter parliament, but none is projected to secure above approximately 20% of the vote. As usual, the next Dutch government, typically an influential player on the EU and world stage, will emerge only after alliance talks that could last months.
Electoral Mechanics and Political Landscape
The parliament contains 150 representatives in the Netherlands legislature, meaning a government needs 76 mandates to achieve majority status. No single party typically achieves this, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions for over 100 years.
Representatives are chosen quadrennially – sooner when governments collapse – through proportional representation, based on an approved list of candidates in a country-wide district: any political group that wins less than 1% of the vote is assured of a seat.
As in many European nations, Netherlands political life have been marked in recent decades by a sharp decline in support for the traditional governing groups from the centre-right and left, whose share of the vote has decreased from more than 80% in the 1980s to just over 40% now.
Domestically, this process has been paralleled by a spectacular proliferation of minor political groups: 27 are running this time, including a party for the over-50s, a party for youth, a party for animals, a basic income advocacy group, and a party for sport.
Major Parties and Primary Concerns
In the lead is Wilders' PVV, forecast to lose up to eight of the 37 seats it won in 2023. It proposes, among other measures, a total moratorium on refugee admissions, Ukrainian men to be sent home, the army to combat "urban violence", and an end to "woke indoctrination" in schools.
Two political groups, of the moderate right and left, are neck-and-neck after the PVV. The Christian Democrats (CDA) dominated Netherlands government from the end of the seventies to the early 90s, and once more in the early 2000s, but dropped to just five seats in the last election.
Nevertheless, under its young leader, its promising new figure, who joined political life just recently, the party has recovered strongly with a campaign highlighting the severe Netherlands housing shortage and a promise of "reasonable, respectful governance". It is on course for up to twenty-six mandates.
GreenLeft/Labour (GL/PvdA), an electoral alliance between the environmentalist party and the 80-year-old Dutch Labour party that is anticipated to become a complete unification, is projected to secure comparable seats, according to survey data.
Led by the experienced ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, it has made building more new homes its primary focus, and has debatedly proposed a net migration cap of between forty to sixty thousand people annually in its manifesto.
Three other parties appear set to be significant forces in the new parliament.
The liberal-progressive D66 is on course to increase representation – capturing up to 17, from its present nine – under its straight-talking young leader, with a platform centred on residential construction (it proposes to construct ten new urban centers) and an "individual basic benefit" for recipients.
The center-right VVD, the political group of the ex-premier (now NATO leader), is predicted to decline to no more than sixteen mandates from its current 24, with its head, accused of taking the party too far to the right, held responsible for its decrease. It is promising corporate tax reductions and less welfare.
The anti-establishment, strictly rightwing JA21 is a spin-off from a different rightwing formation – the previously successful, now scandal-hit Forum for Democracy – and appears to be profiting from an departure of voters from the PVV, BBB and VVD. It could win up to 14 seats.
Besides the VVD and PVV, both remaining members in the ill-fated previous government, the BBB and NSC, are expected to lose out, with the centrist party not even guaranteed representation in parliament.
The top issues so far have been migration policy, with several – sometimes violent – protests against proposed asylum facilities for asylum seekers, the cost of living, and the perennial Dutch problem of housing (the nation is lacking four hundred thousand residences).
Potential New Government
Given the highly fragmented state of Dutch politics, what alliances are actually possible is equally significant as who finishes first (or in this case, probably runner-up, since no major party will partner with Wilders, who insists he wants to head a minority administration).
After the election, MPs first designate an informateur, who explores potential partnerships. Once a viable coalition has been found, a formateur, typically the leader of the biggest prospective member, begins discussing the formal coalition agreement. This often requires months.
Various combinations look possible, most involving a mix of parties from centre left and moderate right. The most likely, according to coalition experts, include Christian Democrats and GreenLeft/Labour, plus D66 and several smaller parties possibly incorporating JA21.
